Politics, Politics, Politics. No baseball. Politics.

OR: March Madness

Here we are. Ohio has spoken. Texas has spoken. What have they said? No Really, where are we? Actually, nobody knows. Hillary is still standing and now claims the momentum (more on that later). Barack has to fight some more. I guess that's all good. For the media. For the fundraisers. But for the party? I don’t think so. For a number of reasons. First, its going to drag on and on, longer than usual. Or at least longer than what we have been recently used to. Are you ready for the key piece of information? The Democratic National Convention does not take place until the LAST week of August (according to past practice it should have been scheduled for July). The face of the Democratic party for six whole months will be a bizarre mix of boredom and ugliness. After that potential bloodbath of a convention, the Republican party has its party. THEY can't wait. They picked their nominee tonight. Mike Huckabee has dropped out, John McCain is their nominee and unless someone tempts the preacher in to believing the Lord wants him to run as an independent because McCain is not right enough, the Republicans will unite and watch the Democrats tear themselves apart. Some of them will be laughing it up and others will be taking notes.

The other problem for the Democrats since Obama could not deliver a knockout blow and force Hillary to bow out and support him is the issue of those Superdelegates, and what to do about Florida and Michigan. We’ll get to that later.

Now I must admit I was wrong about tonight. Until last week I strongly believed it was over for Hillary -- I did not think she was done after Iowa, I did not think New Hampshire would kill her, but last week I thought she was dead. I believed that Hillary, who had made GREAT strides as a campaigner these past few years, reached her limit. Against the usual suspects, the empty grey suits in both parties, she was the breath of fresh air for many people (despite those in both parties who hated her). But against someone with intelligence (like Edwards) and charisma (sorry Senator Edwards) but who was not self destructive (sorry Mayor Giuliani) she reached her limits. She was sounding strident and mean and unsure of herself. Thats's the main reason I thought she would lose. Maybe her past few weeks have taught her how to transcend that as well. Winning solves only part of the problem by boosting self confidence. Hillary needs some genuine character growth to back up a shift in her persona, and maybe she will get some now. I said she needed it two weeks ago in order to make a comeback, but sometimes a good break will do, as we will see below.

The other way candidates make comebacks is chanelling the dark side. We greeks will never forget what Willie Horton for Bush Sr. I believed Hillary would not play the Obama rhymes with you-know-who and has the same middle name as the other (dead) you-know-who game. Not only because I believe Hillary is a person of good character (she just can't hide the politician in her as well as the others do) but because I thought it would not work. As a seasoned political observer however, I knew that if she were persuaded that it would work, she would be forced to do it. The irony is that Obama saw it coming. On the first page of his book "The Audacity of Hope" he wrote that in September 2001 one of his advisors told him everything has changed. His name was now a big political liability. To his infinite credit, he did not pack it in. He was true to his vision and his mission. Yes his ambition, but you have to have ambition to accomplish anything in this world. But it would be difficult for him . Ignorance and bigotry still reign throughout the land. More people believe in Angels than evolution (Jesus Christ, evolution is established scientific FACT, invented by Jesus Christ. Even a relatvie of mine says: if his father and grandfather were Moslems then he’s a Moslem). He knew he had to be careful, and alert and respond properly to any garbage that would be thrown his way. And he knew he had to be careful about pictures, etc. Yes everyone who travels abroad will sooner or later have to don some funny looking clothes but did he have to put on the TURBAN? Never mind. He's a better man than I am. He accepted all the risks.

It was inevitable that his ethnic and religious background would become an issue. It was an issue for Mike Dukakis, despite the color of his skin and his Harvard degree. Despite even his religion, because maybe it was the wrong branch of Christianity in 1988 and it raised somke question somewhere, proabably not among those who would have voted for him if he were a pure red-state Protestant, he was still a Christian. So the picture of Barack H. Obama in native Somalian garb was everywhere. I'm pretty sure the Clinton people dug it up, but maybe not. And so what. My friends tell me the least oxymoronic phrase in the world is “dirty politics”.

The bright spot for Democrats is that maybe its better it came out now, with all the talk (utter nonsense, already disproven, including the junk about his schools in Indonesia) about his really being a Moslem. How can you "really be a Moslem" if your father and his grandfather were apostates from Islam (a capital offense!!) before you were born and if you are a devout Christian, baptized due to your conviction about the faith despite your parents' atheism. Now you know from other things on this blog that I find this mixture of religion and political distasteful if not obscene, but lets at least takes someone's declaration of his own religious belief at face value. If he were a phony, it would have come out long ago. Separation of Church and State, I will say it over an over, is one of America's greatest gifts to mankind. Its better for the Church and its better for the State. It helps prevent the corruption and abuse of both. ‘Nuf said.

The course of this campaign might also be good for the Democrats if Hillary does end up getting the nomination because it demonstrates toughness and guts, which is different from the "bitchiness" she is accused of. Which brings us to Bill. Bill has been beaten up by everybody--Republicans, Democrats, Independents, butchers. Butchers are given a bad name because Bill has been Hillary's hatchet man. But every candidate has a hatchet man. Hillary needs one more than most because as a woman she is even more vulnerable to the charge of meanness, nastiness, bitchiness, whatever. Did Bill come on too strong? Yes he did. Was he responsible for Hilary's slide prior to today? No he was not. All of the above were going to catch up with Hilary and were going to knock her out. Unless she got a break.

She got a break. Obama, or his campaign at least, stumbled. Two things helped her blow Obama away in Ohio. First, the Clintons must have called in every favor from organized labor imaginable. At least among those labors leaders who did not endorse Obama (most did). Second, they jumped on the clumsiness of Obama’s senior economic adviser -- Austan Goolsbee. He reportedly told a Canadian official that the Senator does not mean what he says about opting out of NAFTA. There’s a great Greek word for an act like that—it begins with the letter M, but this is a family blog.

What a disaster in a state like Ohio where voters believe NAFTA is crushing them and in general because it calls into question Obama’s integrity—one of the areas where until now he has blown away “those crafty Clintons” (that’s what Murphy Brown used to say). The polling data—showing a surge in support for Hillary in the last three days, among the late-deciders-- indicts Goolsbee as the man who killed Obama’s momentum.

Oh that funny word. Momentum. Sports fans know what momentum means. If you are a dumb jock whose agents gets you a spot in the broadcast booth, your favorite phrase is momentum. This team has it now, that team just regained it. B.S. It might mean more in some sports than in others, but to me it the next nerve cell that fires in the brain of your pitcher, your quarterback, your point guard--or, in this case, your Senior Economic Advisor. One brain cell gone awry. The difference between a strikeout and a grandslam. Mariano either throws it straight to Jeter in games 7 2001 (as he ALWAYS does) or into center field—one cell misfiring made the difference. John Starks has the best game of his life in game 6 in 1994, then he has the WORST game of his life in game 7. What does momentum do for you against Michael Jordan in 1996, Sandy Koufax in 1966, Jesse Owens in 1936? Oh yes, Koufax’s team lost in ’66, but he gave up only 2 hits—no runs--untouchable. So am I wrong about momentum? No. I mixed in my own B.S. to demonstrate that all talk of momentum is B.S. Momentum is one of those things that you think you can see and feel and touch, but is really an illusion. A REAL illusion, not like Sandy Koufax’s curveball that is called an illusion by ‘“physicists” every now and then. Really, an illusion? The why can't the scientistist hit it? I have a friend who gets annoyed with me and asks “why do you bring baseball into every conversation?” I don’t know. Back to politics.

SUPERDELEGATES. Yes indeed. THEY have the power. 700 individuals. Not unelected as some say –most of them are members of Congress, governors,etc. duly elected by their democratic constituents. The rest are ex-presidents, vice-presidents, long-standing party leaders. Not unworthy as some say. Very worthy. They want to do what will help get a democrat elected president, and they are very smart people and shrewd politicians. This is not elitism, this is respecting knowledge and experience. STILL, if Barack Obama leads in pledged delegates elected in primaries yet is deprived of the nomination because of the superdelegates, THAT will be ugly. The PERCEPTION (which is ALL in politics) will be that Obama was robbed. That the Democratic party which claims the moral mantle of the civil rights movement will have stabbed its first presidential black presidential nominee in the back. I know this because my Republican friends who plan to vote for Obama tell me this.

The only way Obama can be deprived of the nomination without the Democrats cracking up is if Obama’s campaign cracks up. If he begins to stumble badly. Or if the heightened scrutiny that is the natural result of being the leader in the race for the nomination causes some really bad things to come up, if not in Obama’s past, then in his relationship to his supporters, some of whom seem very radical and shady indeed (though everybody’s got some: remember those guys Bill Clinton pardoned. Yuck! And what if McCain picks Huckabee to be his V.P?)

My Republican friends have convinced me that the superdelegates MUST reflect the will of their states. Which brings us to the final ugliness: Florida and Michigan. Hilary wants those delegates. Hillary thinks those delegates will make her President. Well, it might have gotten a little less ugly yesterday: by winning Ohio big and running very strong in Texas, she can now (if she is really smart, and if she isn’t, Bill is) demand new primaries in those states—since she now has her “momentum” back—instead of trying to get them based on the original primaries there despite the fact she agreed with the Democratic Party leadership that they should not be seated at the convention. She won big in Florida because all the other candidates stayed away. Not fair, not honest, not what America is looking for. And with six months to fill, new primaries in Florida and Michigan would be fun. LOL.

And now this essay or effort will be brought to a close. I will say that I think Hilary is just and good and worthy a candidate as Barack Obama. Both have less experience than I would want in a president, but I can say the same thing about McCain. I like nominees who were/are governors. Yes in spite of the G.W. Bush disaster. I belive that because the REAL value of experience is knowing how to select and delegate to and monitor the people who run the government for you and how not to be manipulated by them and other forces in society. I believe the Republican party picked an incompetent W. for two reasons: because he was liked by most Americans at the time (that was a long time ago) and because being dumb as a post (though also a sharp politician—not a contradiction) he could be exploited. Well, I believe McCain, Clinton and Obama are all vulnerable there, but I shifted from Hillary to Barack simply because I thought he would win—and I still do. I know that in an earlier posting I said he was not ready to be president but on my radio program the week of super tuesday I noted that another important element of leadership is picking and managing a good team. Obama may even have one up on J.F.K. here because the latter really benefited from the team his father built for him. There is no shame in that: Alexander deserves the credit for winning with Philip's army, but Barack's work is impressive. What they have accomplished so far has persuaded me to support him, but the ultimate test of his team and his leadership begins now.

If and when he gets the nomination, I have one suggestion for him. One that I believe will get him elected President of the United States. If he doesn’t do this, I predict he will lose a very close election just as I believe Hilary will.

When Barack Obama wins the Democratic Nomination for President of the United States he should pick Colin Powell to be his Vice President. Powell will give him the vital foreign policy national security gravitas (another dumb word). The Independents and Republicans who like him but have doubts will then happily pull the lever (or push the button, or poke out the chad) for Barack Obama.


There. More than 2000 words for all of you who are annoyed I have not written anything for over a month. God bless.